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Commentary

Hillary's Dilemma

by Philip Lentz

Yes, the election is 11 months away. Yes, the polls show the race is close. But don't believe the spin that everything is just fine in Hillaryland. The fact is, the first lady is in deep trouble. And Democrats know it.

As has been plainly evident in recent months, Hillary Rodham Clinton, unlike her husband, is no natural on the campaign trail. She is stiff and gaffe-prone. She is slow to respond in a political environment that has two, three, even four news cycles a day. She has neither a political base nor political roots in the state. And, worst of all, despite a year of mulling and planning and talking about running for the U.S. Senate, she has yet to come up with a rationale for her candidacy, a reason New Yorkers should send to her Washington as one of their own.


Hillary Rodham Clinton, unlike her husband, is no natural on the campaign trail.

Polls show the dimensions of her problems. Her lead among city voters, while overwhelming, is not enough to make up for her problems in the suburbs and upstate. Her lead among women, supposedly her base, is not significant. And her support among Jews--traditionally one of the strongest Democratic voting blocks--has plummeted in the wake of her disastrous Middle East trip.

What to do? Her advisers certainly know how to read polls and their first instinct will be to try to paint Mayor Giuliani as a captive of the right. We saw the first hint of this last week when Clinton attacked the mayor's crackdown on the homeless. Classic Democratic congressional strategy: A vote for Giuliani is a vote for Trent Lott, Clinton will say. He'll keep southern Republicans in control of the Senate -- and you know how insensitive they are to New Yorkers . . .

Trouble is, it won't work. Having won twice in New York City, Giuliani is as moderate as Republicans come. No one is going to confuse him with Newt Gingrich. Moreover, despite what Clinton says, this election will not be won or lost on issues like education and health care and Medicare reform.


Classic Democratic congressional strategy: A vote for Giuliani is a vote for Trent Lott, Clinton will say.

Candidates use issues to define themselves. But these two candidates are already very well defined. In this campaign, issues will be used more to reinforce each candidates' core supporters rather than to win over the few undecided voters still on the fence.

That is why, if Clinton continues to trail Giuliani, the Clinton campaign will ultimately play the race card. Her advisers won't acknowledge that that's what they are doing, of course. They will say they're just trying to boost turnout among traditional Democratic voters. But minorities--especially blacks--are among the most dependable Democratic voters in the universe. They are also one demographic group that detests Rudy Giuliani and can be guaranteed to vote for Clinton--if they get to the polls.

If they get to the polls. To rev up this Democratic base--to try to encourage a larger than normal minority turnout--Team Hillary will try to demonize Rudy Giuliani. They certainly have a lot of material to play with. From Rudy's crackdown on welfare and the homeless, to the Abner Louima beating, to the police shooting of Amadou Diallo, the Mayor has a long track record of being insensitive and politically tone deaf to the needs and aspirations of the City's black community.

But it's one thing for a public debate on race play itself out in street demonstrations and newspaper editorial pages. It's quite another to splash it up on harsh 30-second commercials that are designed to arouse a specific demographic group to come out and vote.

Don't think it could happen here? Remember back to the 1993 mayoral campaign. Incumbent David Dinkins, the City's first African-American mayor, faced a tough reelection fight. So President Clinton came to town and suggested that Dinkins was in political trouble because too many New Yorkers had difficulty supporting a black man. Of course, Dinkins' record the previous four years may have had something to do with his unpopularity. But there was an election to be won and the president was trying to lend a hand. (It didn't work; Dinkins lost to Giuliani anyway.)


Earmuffs may be the recommended accessory to survive the 2000 election year

Moreover, the Giuliani campaign is sure to respond in kind to any racially tinged attack from the Clinton camp. Look at how quickly a pro-Giuliani Jewish group put out a TV ad exploiting Clinton's stumbles on the West Bank. The Mayor is already trying to portray the first lady as a "left-wing elitist" and pushing her into the arms of the Rev. Al Sharpton--who is disliked by Jewish voters as much as the mayor is hated by most blacks. By next fall, Giuliani may be linking Sharpton to Clinton so closely that voters may think he is her campaign manager.

The danger with these strategies is that, in the heat of a campaign, when political points are made with the nuance of a sledgehammer, racial themes can polarize the body politic and tear at the City's already fragile racial fabric. No matter who wins, it would be a campaign to forget, not remember.

Campaigns are by definition nasty affairs these days. And the closer the race, the nastier it gets. There is too much at stake in this contest for either side to pull its punches. Earmuffs may be the recommended accessory to survive the 2000 election year.

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Philip Lentz is the political reporter for Crain's New York Business

Also by Phillip Lentz:
Gotham Gazette Commentary: Race For Gracie Mansion
Gotham Gazette Commentary: Political Fatigue

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